Counterpoint Research says Apple could take a surprisingly large share of the foldable smartphone market in its very first year if it launches an iPhone Fold. In a new forecast published on March 17, the research firm said Apple may be able to claim 28% market share during its debut year in the segment, which would immediately place it among the top players.
The projection comes as the broader foldable market is still relatively small but expected to keep growing. According to the report, global foldable smartphone shipments are set to increase by 20% in 2026. That growth is being driven in part by manufacturers putting more weight behind book-style foldables, which are increasingly seen as better suited for productivity and media use.
Counterpoint argues that this trend is being reinforced by continued OEM investment. Brands are directing more resources toward larger foldable designs, and that focus is helping define the category’s next phase. In that context, Apple’s possible entry could reshape the market faster than a typical first-generation product launch would.
The firm also says cost pressure is changing the way companies think about the space. Rising prices for components such as memory are pushing manufacturers to pay more attention to higher-margin premium devices. That makes foldables more strategically important, since they give brands a path to compete in the upper end of the market where profitability tends to be stronger.
At the same time, foldables are still far from mainstream. Counterpoint notes that the category currently holds only about 1.6% market share overall. Even so, the firm believes the combination of improving technology, greater product maturity, and Apple’s eventual entry could help solidify foldables as a more clearly defined part of the smartphone business.
If Apple really does arrive and perform anywhere near that forecast, the first year of the iPhone Fold could become one of the biggest events the category has seen so far. For now, though, the report is still a forward-looking market prediction rather than confirmation of a product launch.
