Market research firm Omdia now expects the smartphone AMOLED panels market to cool in 2026, forecasting total shipments of about 778 million units, down 7% from 2025.
In its breakdown, rigid OLED shipments are projected to reach roughly 127 million units, which would represent a much steeper 17% decline and mark a second straight year of contraction for that segment.
The larger flexible OLED category is also expected to slip, with shipments forecast at 651 million units. That would amount to a 5% drop and, according to Omdia, the first decline this segment has seen in seven years.
Omdia argues that continuing component price increases may end up helping Apple strengthen its position, while Chinese smartphone brands could face a tougher operating environment.
The firm also points to broader macro pressure, including geopolitical tension and ongoing global economic stress, as factors that could weigh on the wider smartphone market through the period ahead.
Taken together, the forecast suggests that even though OLED remains central to modern phone design, shipment growth is no longer guaranteed across every part of the market, especially when costs and demand pressure start moving in the wrong direction.
